Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
